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Standard : Leaders base decisions on evidence, not opinion or authority

Purpose and Strategic Importance

This standard requires leaders to actively seek evidence before making significant decisions — and to make that practice visible. Authority without evidence produces poor decisions; evidence without authority produces no decisions. Evidence-based leadership combines both: the willingness to look at what is true and the courage to act on it.

It supports the policy "Enable Evidence-Based Leadership" by making evidence use a structured leadership expectation, not a personal preference.

Strategic Impact

  • Improves decision quality by grounding choices in reality rather than assumption
  • Reduces the cost of decisions made on poor information or institutional inertia
  • Builds trust by demonstrating that decisions are reasoned, not arbitrary
  • Challenges HiPPO dynamics (Highest Paid Person's Opinion) that suppress better information
  • Enables faster course-correction because decisions have clear evidence bases to revisit

Risks of Not Having This Standard

  • Decisions made on authority rather than evidence entrench poor strategies
  • Teams spend effort on work that data would have shown was unlikely to succeed
  • Leadership credibility erodes when decisions are seen to contradict available evidence
  • Organisations continue investing in what is comfortable rather than what the data supports

CMMI Maturity Model

Level 1 – Initial

Category Description
People & Culture - Decisions driven by senior opinion and experience rather than data.
- Evidence presented as supporting material, not decision input.
Process & Governance - No structured expectation that evidence is presented with significant decisions.
- Data available but not systematically used in leadership decisions.
Technology & Tools - Reporting tools exist but are not used in decision forums.
- Data accessible to analysts, not integrated into leadership practice.
Measurement & Metrics - Decision quality not tracked or reviewed.
- Evidence use in decisions not assessed.

Level 2 – Managed

Category Description
People & Culture - Some leaders request evidence before decisions but inconsistently.
- Data used in planning but not as a live decision input.
Process & Governance - Some decision templates include evidence sections.
- Reviews occasionally interrogate the evidence behind recommendations.
Technology & Tools - Dashboards and reporting tools in use in some leadership forums.
- Data literacy present in some but not all leadership teams.
Measurement & Metrics - Decision outcomes reviewed retrospectively in some areas.
- Evidence quality not assessed proactively.

Level 3 – Defined

Category Description
People & Culture - Leaders routinely ask "what does the evidence show?" before significant decisions.
- Evidence use modelled visibly in leadership forums.
Process & Governance - Decision-making templates require evidence presentation.
- Decisions documented with their evidence basis for future review.
Technology & Tools - Live data dashboards integrated into leadership decision forums.
- Data literacy investment targeted at leadership as well as analysts.
Measurement & Metrics - Evidence quality assessed as part of decision governance.
- Decision review cycles evaluate whether evidence basis was adequate.

Level 4 – Quantitatively Managed

Category Description
People & Culture - Evidence-based decision-making assessed in leadership development conversations.
- Leaders coach others on distinguishing evidence from opinion in decision processes.
Process & Governance - Evidence standards applied consistently across major strategic and investment decisions.
- After-action reviews evaluate evidence quality as a learning input.
Technology & Tools - Decision intelligence platforms provide leaders with contextual, timely evidence.
- Data confidence indicators surface with all major data inputs.
Measurement & Metrics - Decision quality tracked through outcome reviews.
- Correlation between evidence quality and decision outcome visible over time.

Level 5 – Optimising

Category Description
People & Culture - Evidence-based thinking is an unquestioned organisational norm at leadership level.
- Leaders openly change their minds when evidence warrants it.
Process & Governance - Evidence practices continuously refined based on decision quality outcomes.
- Evidence standards evolve with available data quality and analytical capability.
Technology & Tools - AI-assisted evidence synthesis surfaces the most relevant data for each decision context.
- Decision support infrastructure continuously improved.
Measurement & Metrics - Decision quality and evidence use tracked as organisational capability metrics.
- Evidence-based culture measured as a standing indicator of leadership maturity.

Key Measures

  • Percentage of major decisions accompanied by documented evidence basis
  • Survey scores on whether leadership decisions feel evidence-based and transparent
  • Decision review outcomes (proportion where evidence basis was adequate)
  • Data literacy scores across leadership population
  • Rate of decisions revisited when evidence changes
Associated Policies
Associated Practices
  • Transparent Decision Communication
  • Stakeholder Impact Assessment
  • Iterative Change Rollout
  • Evidence-Based Decision Frameworks
  • Pre-Mortem Analysis
  • After-Action Review
  • Leadership Dashboard Reviews

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